Broadcast TV’s Surprising Resilience: Insights from Two Weeks on the Road
Or why we shouldn't throw away your antenna quite yet
Over the last two weeks, I immersed myself in the broadcasting industry's pulse. From the HbbTV Symposium in the UK to a whirlwind tour across the U.S., culminating at the TV of Tomorrow Show, the conversations were as varied as they were revealing. Despite the steady drumbeat of challenges facing traditional broadcast television—declining retransmission fees and competition from streaming—there’s reason to believe that reports of its demise may be greatly exaggerated.
The State of Broadcast: Decline or Evolution?
Broadcast TV is undeniably facing a transition, yet it’s far from being on life support. The decline in retransmission fees is real, but it doesn’t paint the whole picture. What’s emerging instead is a story of adaptation, innovation, and resilience.
CBS continues to run without Nielsen ratings, but it doesn’t seem to take the wind out of their sales. Recent reports from Variety show that the network has seen a boost in ratings year-on-year, but I wonder if this uptick is due to the change in measurement currency rather than the performance of CBS’s programming slate. Radha Subramanyan gave a vigorous defense of their approach at the TV of Tomorrow show in New York, and perhaps it’s a bit of both—a reminder that success in broadcasting isn’t just about how you measure it; it’s about delivering content that resonates.
Political Ads and TV’s Enduring Clout
Another fascinating insight came from the advertising front. One TV exec told me that during the recent U.S. election cycle, Republican campaigns allocated half of their ad spend to television. That’s far higher than I expected, and it seemed to work for them. Is that because of TV's power or because older voters—who traditionally skew Republican—remain loyal TV viewers? While other platforms vie for younger audiences, TV continues to hold a unique power among specific demographics.
Addressable TV: A Bridge to the Future
Addressable TV is growing steadily, offering advertisers a targeted approach even as cable subscriptions decline. This technology is not yet widely available for over-the-air (OTA) broadcasts, but the transition to ATSC 3.0 promises to change that in the coming years. Europe is already ahead in this domain, with addressable ads on OTA broadcasts becoming a reality.
Economic challenges remain in the relationships with OEMs. I get conflicting messages on whether broadcasters are actually sharing advertising revenues with the OEMs over broadcast, but European Broadcasters are making significant investments in OTA infrastructure and brand awareness, which reflects a longer-term vision for the medium.
The U.S., by contrast, remains in a holding pattern, awaiting broader adoption of ATSC 3.0. However, with a likely shift in U.S. regulatory policy under a Republican administration, optimism is growing that we could see an acceleration in the rollout of 3.0-compatible sets. The business case for smart broadcasting using ATSC3.0 is compelling. Suppose broadcasters invest in making consumers aware of what’s on offer. In that case, there’s a future beyond declining retrans fees: Free OTA broadcasts of premium events, like football, have immense appeal—but only if audiences know these options exist.
The Road Ahead
Broadcast TV is being heavily disrupted but is far from obsolete. Its strengths lie in its ability to deliver significant, engaged audiences—particularly for live events and specific demographics. The ongoing evolution toward addressable advertising and advanced standards like ATSC 3.0 will only enhance these capabilities.
My final insight came from folks who lived in the path of Hurricane Milton. They reported that every local Walmart sold off Antennas the following day. As an industry, we might not think OTA is important, but there are clearly more people using it than we might think.
The conversations I’ve had over the past fortnight reaffirm one thing: While the challenges are real, so is the opportunity. With the right blend of innovation, investment, and communication, broadcast TV can carve out a dynamic role in the media landscape for years to come.
